Load Shedding: Is South Africa Prepared for Up to 16 Hours of Blackouts?

South Africans are in for a tough winter as rolling blackouts have returned, with experts warning of up to 16 hours of blackouts. Eskom is struggling to generate the required 25 GW of electricity, and demand is expected to increase to 36 GW, leaving a potential shortfall of 10 GW. The power utility has indicated that higher stages of load shedding, possibly up to Stage 16, will be necessary to prevent a national blackout and protect the national grid.

Experts Warn of a Bleak Winter

Energy expert Lungile Mashele has cautioned that South Africans can expect even more frequent and extended blackouts during the winter, somewhere around late July and August. A possible Stage 16 load shedding will mean that an unfortunate South African would have no electricity for 16 hours.

The current situation appears bleak since Eskom’s National Rationalised Specifications (NRS) 048-9 document only allows for Stage 8 load shedding. Still, an update of the document is on the horizon with a higher load shedding stage in the works.

Reasons for Load Shedding

The load shedding is currently necessary since Eskom’s struggling power stations cannot meet energy needs. The country heavily relies on coal-powered electricity, and the Constantia power station is one of the producing plants, which has been under repair since last year. The situation has also been complicated by coal contracts expiring, which exacerbates the electricity supply crisis already in place.

The Consequences of Load Shedding

The longer South Africa experiences blackouts, the more the country will build momentum behind finding alternative energy solutions. In the meantime, higher stages of load shedding have a considerable impact on the country’s growth and stability. Instructors have predicted that a blackout would result in days, maybe weeks, of zero economic activity.

A blackout would mean that fuel shortages would spread, affecting transport and other industries that rely on power sources. Hospitals, labs, and morgues are likely to use backup generators, but it’s unclear for how long they would last. Additionally, while many business premises have backup schemes in place, such as DC-UPS and generators, they would require a refuelling system to continue running. The longer the blackouts, the greater the possible cases of looting and vandalism in South Africa. Experts argue that the best way to prevent a total blackout would be rolling power cuts.

While electricity supply crisis in South Africa continues, efforts are in place to improve the country’s energy production. It remains unclear how long Eskom can sustain higher stages of load shedding before a complete blackout could occur. The country needs more effective solutions in power production, such as the implementation of alternative energy sources, to help reduce reliance on traditional coal-powered electricity production. By taking necessary steps, South Africa may see noticeable improvement toward the end of 2024.