The Ongoing Energy Struggle
While winter load shedding has proven less devastating than initially predicted, the recent leap to stage 6 demonstrates that South Africa is far from resolving its energy predicament. This, unfortunately, does not bode well for the economy.
As we rolled into this year, Eskom and Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa cautioned of intensifying load shedding during the winter months.
“I’ll be brutally honest. It’s going to be an exceptionally difficult winter. We know that in summer conditions, the deficit is 6,000 megawatts. When we go into winter, the peak can go up to 37,000 megawatts,” Ramokgopa confessed.
Unexpected Reduction in Load-shedding
Contrarily, load shedding subsided as we moved into winter, with most of June experiencing stage 3 as the apex stage of load shedding.
Several factors contributed to this unexpected turn of events: decreased planned maintenance, fewer unplanned outages, and significantly, a demand that was lower than anticipated.
The Sudden Cold Snap & Demand Spike
However, a particularly bitter cold front last week resulted in a dramatic upswing in demand. Demand climbed from 27,725 MW on Saturday, 8 July, to a high of 33,370 MW by Monday, 10 July. This surge in demand, along with an uptick in breakdowns, thrust Eskom into stage 6 load shedding.
Though load shedding has since tapered off, alternating between stage 2 and 4, the Bureau for Economic Research (BER) warns of potential economic ramifications should load shedding intensify as we transition into Q3.
Economic Prospects Amid Load-shedding
BER economists maintain a hopeful stance regarding Q2 2023 real GDP trends, citing elevated manufacturing and mining production in Q2 compared to Q1. Yet, high levels of load shedding could disrupt the growth momentum in Q3.
“Therefore, the weakness we initially expected for Q2 may simply be postponed to the third quarter,” BER reported.
A Glimmer of Hope on the Horizon
However, BER also suggested some promising prospects for load shedding in the near future. Operation Vulindlela – a joint initiative between the Presidency and National Treasury aiming for energy reforms – offers a ray of hope.
Notably, Operation Vulindlela’s Embedded Generation Task Team observed a rise in private sector generation projects, skyrocketing from roughly 4,000 MW in March 2022 to a total capacity of 10,000 MW.
It is anticipated that 3,000 MW of this capacity will come online next year, potentially reducing load shedding by three stages.
Moreover, Eskom plans to restore several major generation units from long-term outages by the end of this year or early 2024.
This implies that the intensity of South Africa’s energy crisis should ease in 2024.
“Therefore, we are cautious not to extrapolate the current very poor domestic business conditions into 2024. Although slow going, there seems to be more progress being made behind the scenes to alleviate the debilitating power constraint than is generally appreciated,” the BER expressed.