Ramaphosa Highlights Continued Risk of Load Shedding Despite Recent Progress

President Cyril Ramaphosa has welcomed Eskom’s achievement of 100 days without load shedding but cautioned against complacency. In his weekly letter to the public, the president emphasized that the electricity system remains fragile and the threat of load shedding has not been entirely eliminated.

A Call for Continued Vigilance

“One hundred days without load shedding is not a reason to relax,” Ramaphosa stated. “Our electricity system remains vulnerable, and we cannot yet rule out the possibility of further load shedding.”

Ramaphosa urged that this milestone should serve as a catalyst for accelerating reforms in the electricity sector to secure a stable supply for the future.

“We are committed to continuing and completing the far-reaching structural reforms initiated during the sixth administration to resolve the immediate electricity supply challenges and lay the groundwork for energy security in the future,” he wrote.

Key Reforms and Future Plans

The president highlighted several key reforms, including:

• Removing the licensing threshold for new power generation projects.
• Offering tax incentives for rooftop solar installations.
• Opening more bid windows for renewable energy projects.
• Improving Eskom’s operational viability.

With the Government of National Unity starting its work, Ramaphosa assured that the seventh administration will sustain this momentum.

Progress on Load Shedding

Eskom recently announced that it had reached 100 days without national outages, now extended to 103 days. The utility is optimistic about maintaining this streak.

The extended suspension of load shedding results from significant improvements in Eskom’s operations, such as reducing breakdowns to below 12,000MW and cutting spending on Open-Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGTs). Additionally, the successful commissioning of Unit 5 at the Kusile power station has added 800MW to the grid. Eskom also returned three units at Kusile to service ahead of schedule, with Unit 6 expected to be synchronized to the grid by the end of the year.

Moreover, Eskom anticipates the return of Koeberg Unit 2 by November 2024, adding nearly another 1,000MW to the grid over time.

Impact of Reduced Demand

Another factor contributing to grid stability is the significant decline in user demand, driven by households and industries opting for own-generation or alternative energy solutions. While the exact numbers are not confirmed, Eskom has noted approximately 5,500MW of solar and renewable generation outside of its control. Analysts estimate a permanent drop in demand of 1,500-2,000MW.

Positive Outcomes

Regardless of the exact sources of the improvement, the break from load shedding has had a tremendously positive impact on the country.

The improved reliability of the power supply has been a relief for households, allowing them to go about their daily lives without disruption. Businesses have also benefited significantly. The latest consumer confidence index from the Bureau for Economic Research (BER) indicated that the suspension of load shedding contributed to increased consumer confidence in the second quarter of the year.

This improvement is a boost to the national economy, which relies on a stable and reliable electricity supply for growth.

“There is cause for optimism that business and investor confidence will improve,” Ramaphosa noted.

Economic Outlook

In its April Monetary Policy Review, the South African Reserve Bank pointed out that as electricity supply gradually improves—underpinned by ongoing private investment in renewable energy and increased maintenance by Eskom—South Africa’s near and medium-term growth outlook is set to improve.

The Reserve Bank stressed the importance of fully implementing energy and logistics sector reforms to sustain and enhance economic growth.

As South Africa navigates these changes, the milestone of 100 days without load shedding is a significant achievement, but continued vigilance and reform are essential to ensure long-term energy security.