Loadshedding.com
Eskom’s recent operational improvements have sparked growing optimism that South Africa may be on the brink of ending load-shedding. Bheki Nxumalo, Eskom’s head of generation, explained to the Sunday Times how the utility’s strategic management of its aging power units has played a crucial role in this positive trend.
Strategic Shutdowns and Cold Reserves
Nxumalo highlighted that Eskom occasionally shuts down its older, more expensive units during periods of low demand to conserve resources and reduce costs. However, he emphasized that the reliability of restarting these units is a key consideration in this strategy. “Placing units on cold reserve is a routine practice for large power systems and requires careful planning,” he said.
Eskom forecasts electricity demand up to 18 months in advance to ensure that planned maintenance aligns with periods of lower demand, while maintaining enough operational reserves to manage unexpected generator breakdowns. Restarting these units can take up to 72 hours, so Eskom carefully limits the number of units placed on cold reserve at any one time to ensure there’s always enough power available.
A Surge in Capacity
In late July, Eskom was generating over 35,000MW daily, surpassing peak demand by 3,000MW—a level of surplus capacity not seen since July 2018. Nxumalo pointed out that the utility’s focus on repairing existing generation assets has been more cost-effective than adding new capacity. “Fixing existing assets has saved money, with capacity losses dropping below 9,000MW, about 7,000MW less than in 2023,” Nxumalo noted.
Adding new generation capacity would cost around R100 billion, making the strategy of repairing and optimizing current assets a more financially viable option. He also highlighted the improved performance of the Medupi and Kusile power stations, which were once among Eskom’s most problematic but are now its top performers.
Optimism for an End to Load-Shedding
The improvements have fueled optimism among energy experts that load-shedding could be a thing of the past by the end of 2024. Professor Sampson Mamphweli of the South African National Energy Development Institute expressed confidence in this outlook. “I am very much optimistic that we may be able to continue to sustain this until we start the beginning of summer, and if we go through the beginning of summer without load-shedding, we might see the end of load-shedding,” Mamphweli said.
Mamphweli believes the government could officially declare the end of load-shedding between November and December 2024, based on the current trajectory.
Government’s Role in Stability
Electricity and Energy Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa also acknowledged Eskom’s improved performance, noting that the load-shedding break since March 26, 2024, is likely sustainable. “Since the beginning of this year, Eskom’s plant availability has been trending upwards, supported by a decrease in unplanned losses,” Ramokgopa said, adding that all indications suggest this positive performance will continue.
To further enhance the reliability of the power supply, the government is investing in new generation capacity and converting open-cycle gas turbines to more efficient gas and closed-cycle systems. “Eskom’s fleet is performing much more reliably heading into summer 2024, with unplanned losses kept below 14,000MW during winter, allowing for additional short-term planned maintenance,” Ramokgopa concluded.
As South Africa moves into the latter half of 2024, the combination of Eskom’s operational improvements and strategic government interventions is providing hope that the country might finally say goodbye to load-shedding.
Load Shedding Reporter 
