End of Load-Shedding in Sight, Says Energy Expert

South Africa could potentially see the end of load-shedding as early as October 2024, according to Professor Sampson Mamphweli of the South African National Energy Development Institute. In a recent interview with Newzroom Afrika, Mamphweli highlighted several key factors contributing to the improved stability of the country’s power supply.

Optimistic Outlook for Load-Shedding

Mamphweli noted that Eskom’s enhanced energy availability factor (EAF), fewer breakdowns, and reduced demand have significantly bolstered the power generation system’s performance.

“It’s been a good four months of no load-shedding, and the data that we have from Eskom shows that it’s basically because the system is performing very well,” he said.

Mamphweli also emphasized the role of small-scale embedded generation, such as rooftop solar panels, in sustaining the power grid. “We’ve got about 6GW of rooftop solar PV that has been installed by households and businesses that continue to help, even in winter,” he added.

Capacity and Demand Dynamics

Currently, Eskom has over 30GW of capacity available, while demand remains relatively low, allowing the utility to build reserves through pumped storage and other measures.

“Eskom is able to use the additional capacity to build reserves through pumped storage and other things,” Mamphweli explained. He acknowledged that demand might increase during the summer months as air conditioning use rises, but he remains optimistic.

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“I am very much optimistic that we may be able to continue to sustain this until we start the beginning of summer, and if we go through the beginning of summer without load-shedding, we might see the end of load-shedding,” Mamphweli said. “I am very confident that by November, December, government should be declaring the end of load-shedding in South Africa.”

Cautionary Perspectives

However, the reduction in demand may not solely be attributed to small-scale embedded generation. In early July 2024, former Reserve Bank deputy governor Kuben Naidoo pointed out that the mining sector’s struggles have also contributed to the lower energy consumption.

Naidoo explained that the sector’s reduced productivity—caused by lower demand for commodities and higher input costs—has lessened its energy needs.

“My personal view is that half of the reason we don’t have load shedding is because the mining sector is in a deep recession,” Naidoo stated. He warned that if the mining sector ramps up production, load-shedding could return.

Upcoming Capacity Boosts

While the future impact of increased mining production remains uncertain, Eskom is set to add a further 1,740MW of generation capacity by the end of 2024. Two major units are expected to come back online before year’s end:

  • Medupi Unit 4 is slated to return to service by August 2024, adding 800MW to the national grid.
  • Koeberg Unit 2 is expected to return by the end of September 2024, contributing 940MW to the grid.
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Eskom recently brought Kusile Unit 5 online in late June 2024, adding another 800MW to the grid and increasing Kusile Power Station’s total contribution to 4,000MW.

“After six months of rigorous testing and optimisation, Eskom is pleased to announce the successful transfer of Unit 5 of the Kusile Power Station from the new build programme to operations in the Generation Division,” Eskom said in a statement.

Isabel Fick, Eskom’s System Operator general manager, emphasized the importance of Kusile Unit 5 for the country’s energy stability.

“Kusile Unit 5 makes an extremely valuable contribution to the national grid. Not only is it one of the largest baseload units contributing megawatts, but it also enhances the stability of the network through its nature,” Fick stated.

Conclusion

While the prospect of ending load-shedding in South Africa is becoming more plausible, experts caution that the situation remains delicate. The potential resurgence of the mining sector and the overall stability of the power grid will be critical factors in determining whether the country can sustain this progress and officially declare an end to load-shedding.

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