Eskom’s Milestone: 100 Days Without Load Shedding

4 July 2024 marks a significant milestone for Eskom as it celebrates 100 days without load shedding, the longest break from rotational power cuts in four years. This period is also 70 days longer than the total days without load shedding in 2023.

Although this is only the sixth-longest reprieve since 2014, it comes at a time when many energy experts predicted Eskom would continue to struggle with meeting demand. The utility has defied expectations by significantly improving the reliability of its generation fleet.

Expert Predictions vs. Reality

In January 2024, EE Business Intelligence head and energy expert Chris Yelland anticipated a somewhat less dire outlook for load shedding compared to 2023. He believed that if Eskom could stabilize the Energy Availability Factor (EAF) between 50% and 60%, it would be a commendable effort, resulting in load shedding similar to or slightly better than in 2023.

• Energy Availability Factor (EAF): The EAF is the percentage of available energy generation capacity over a given period relative to Eskom’s total installed capacity.

Matthew Cruise, a spokesperson for Hohm Energy, also predicted that load shedding in 2024 would be roughly the same as in 2023, expecting only 20 to 50 days without load shedding, provided the EAF remained below 60%.

However, neither Yelland nor Cruise anticipated the significant improvements Eskom would achieve. The last recorded load shedding in South Africa was on 25 March 2024, when Eskom’s EAF was at 57.34%. Over the next 12 weeks, the EAF steadily increased, reaching 62.28% by the end of June. For the past eight weeks, Eskom has maintained an EAF above 60%.

Private Solar Power’s Impact

Another major factor contributing to the reduced load shedding is the increased adoption of private solar power, which has decreased the demand for Eskom’s electricity.

• Rooftop Solar Power: In July 2022, “behind the meter” rooftop solar power generation was estimated at 2,264MW. By March 2024, this figure had more than doubled to 5,440MW.

According to data from EskomSePush and TheOutlier, South Africa experienced 1,656 hours of load shedding in 2024, compared to 6,947 hours in 2023. This year has seen only two days of stage 6 load shedding, two days of stage 5, and six days of stage 4. In contrast, 2023 recorded 44 days of stage 6, 23 days of stage 5, and 82 days of stage 4.

Even if Eskom were to implement load shedding for the remaining 181 days of 2024, the total would still be significantly less than in 2023.

New Capacity Added

Eskom recently boosted South Africa’s power mix by adding 800MW from Kusile’s Unit 5, which achieved commercial operation in June 2024.

“After six months of rigorous testing and optimization, Eskom is pleased to announce the successful transfer of Unit 5 of the Kusile Power Station from the new build program to operations in the Generation Division,” said Eskom.

Eskom System Operator General Manager Isabel Fick noted that Kusile Unit 5 would stabilize South Africa’s electricity network. “Kusile Unit 5 makes an extremely valuable contribution to the national grid. Not only is it one of the largest baseload units contributing megawatts, but it also enhances the stability of the network through its nature,” Fick said.

Looking Forward

The unit was first synchronized to the grid on 31 December 2023 and had previously only intermittently supplied electricity during testing phases. During these tests, the unit met performance expectations, supported the grid, and helped reduce load shedding.

Eskom Group CEO Dan Marokane stated that the addition of 800MW is part of a total of 2,500MW expected to be integrated into Eskom’s generation mix by the end of the year.

However, challenges remain. Eskom needs to complete repairs on the flue-gas duct (FGD) that collapsed in October 2022, which forced the utility to use temporary chimney stacks for Kusile Units 1, 2, and 3. While the temporary fix provided over 2,100MW of additional capacity, it increased emissions substantially. Eskom must resume using the FGD before March 2025 when its exemption from emission standards, granted by the environment department, expires.

As Eskom continues to navigate these challenges, the milestone of 100 days without load shedding marks a significant achievement in its ongoing efforts to stabilize and improve South Africa’s power supply.